Climate target of 1.5 C looms as challenge of the century
(ZHONG JINYE/FOR CHINA DAILY)
The stakes are stratospherically high ahead of the 26th United Nations Climate Change Conference of the Parties, or COP 26, which opens in Glasgow on Sunday.
World leaders, industry heads, academics, celebrities and climate campaigners will gather in the Scottish city for two weeks of intense debate on global warming.
The event is a diplomatic meet, trade expo and focal point for demonstrations all rolled into one.
Over the last year, most major emitters have committed to achieve net-zero emissions by mid-century. We are getting closer to that objective. But if you look at the NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions, or domestic goals for emissions reductions), which have been submitted ahead of COP26, they are far from adequate to give us even a 50/50 chance of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees, or a 90 percent chance of limiting it to 2 degrees
Aidar Turner, a member of the House of Lords in the United Kingdom who chairs the Energy Transitions Commission
President Xi Jinping has said that climate change is "nature's alarm bell for humanity", and there is a broad consensus among the attending delegations that this alarm is now deafening.
United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who is hosting COP 26, has described the conference as a turning point for mankind, and United States climate envoy John Kerry said the meeting was "the last best chance" to avoid environmental catastrophe on a global scale.
In Glasgow, leaders will negotiate how best to achieve and accelerate goals laid out in Paris in 2015, when an agreement to keep global warming to below 2 C, but preferably 1.5 C, was struck.
The success of COP 26 will largely hinge on what countries can agree in terms of domestic targets, as well as cross-border mechanisms and financing to curb emissions.
Ahead of COP 26, most nations submitted their domestic goals for emissions reductions, known as Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs.
However, during the negotiations in Glasgow, there will be a huge "elephant in the room", as the sum of these NDCs is not sufficient to close the so-called emissions gap.
The Climate Action Tracker estimates that to stay on course for 1.5 C warming by mid-century, the world must collectively reduce emissions by 20 billion to 23 billion metric tons of those made annually by 2030.
The NDCs submitted last year and this year will serve to narrow this gap by just 4 billion tons, according to the Tracker, an independent scientific analysis produced by two research organizations tracking climate action since 2009.
Separate estimates recently released by the UN found that a total emissions reduction of 55 percent by 2030 is needed to keep the 1.5 C target in sight, while current NDCs have the world on course for a mere 7.5 percent reduction.
Aidar Turner, a member of the House of Lords in the UK who chairs the Energy Transitions Commission, or ETC, said, "Over the last year, most major emitters have committed to achieve net-zero emissions by mid-century.
"We are getting closer to that objective. But if you look at the NDCs, which have been submitted ahead of COP 26, they are far from adequate to give us even a 50/50 chance of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees, or a 90 percent chance of limiting it to 2 degrees."
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has called for "more ambition from every country" in their NDCs, as current targets have set the world on a "catastrophic pathway" for 2.7 C of global warming.
"This must stop. This must be reversed," he said during the recent Pacific Islands Forum.
In this Feb 4, 2020 photo, Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson launches the upcoming UK-hosted COP26 UN Climate Summit in London, England. (PHOTO / AP)
Ambitious pledges
Some of the world's major economies have made ambitious emissions reductions pledges, including net-zero targets, in the months leading up to the conference.
By 2030, the UK aims to reduce emissions by at least 68 percent compared to 1990 levels. The US has committed to halving emissions by 2030, while China has pledged to peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060.
China's special climate envoy Xie Zhenhua said during a virtual news conference on Oct 19 the nation would "fight its hardest" to achieve emissions and neutrality targets over the coming decades. He said COP 26 provides an opportunity to construct "road maps for actionable policies and measures" and to ensure that countries "honor words with real deeds".
On Tuesday, the State Council, China's Cabinet, released an action plan for carbon dioxide peaking before 2030. By that year, the share of non-fossil energy consumption will be around 25 percent, and carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will drop by more than 65 percent compared with the level registered in 2005, according to the plan.
Asher Minns, executive director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at the University of East Anglia in the UK, said net-zero pledges will have an impact despite being voluntary and non-binding.
"Anecdotally, I would say that net-zero ambitions can focus minds, and some have been backed up with policy action and economic incentives－in the UK for example," Minns said.
Net-zero pledges from major economies appear to have placed pressure on industry as well as some of the slow movers on emissions reductions.
Australia, for example, was criticized for submitting an NDC last year that was unchanged from its previous commitments. The nation has now committed to a net-zero target for 2050, with Prime Minister Scott Morrison saying that modeling outlining emissions reductions will be released "eventually".
Turner, from the ETC, said the net-zero pledges are very important, as "once a government has committed to a net-zero target, company commitments follow".
He cited the example of China Baowu Steel Group Corp, which has committed to achieving emissions neutrality by 2050, immediately following China's 2060 net-zero pledge.
"The company is now developing clear plans to get there, with progress already in the 2020s," Turner said.
Ajay Gambhir, a climate economist at Imperial College London, said the absence of pledges from India, the world's third-largest emitter, would surely be a talking point at COP 26.
"India is yet to submit a new NDC, which is the most glaring thing right now, as its current NDC is easy to meet," Gambhir said. "India has made no net-zero target announcement yet either, so many eyes will be on that."
Delegates at the conference will also be tasked with negotiating cross-border action on climate change.
In this July 29, 2021 file photo, birds fly over a man taking photos of the exposed riverbed of the Old Parana River, a tributary of the Parana River, during a drought in Rosario, Argentina. Parana River Basin and its related aquifers provide potable water to close to 40 million people in South America. According to environmentalists, the falling water levels of the river are due to climate change, diminishing rainfall, deforestation and the advance of agriculture. (VICTOR CAIVANO / AP)
Financing crucial
Patricia Espinosa, executive secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, has said that COP 26 can only claim success if global climate financing targets are met.
In 2015, developed nations agreed to raise $100 billion in annual financing by last year to support developing countries mitigate the effects of climate change and phase out fossil fuels. That target is yet to be met, and delegates are expected to negotiate a new 2025 target from a floor of $100 billion.
Gambhir said: "This money is critical, as even though there's a clear rationale for tackling climate change, there are still costs to be borne. If there aren't clear and credible plans to finally provide this money, and then increase it later in the decade, we won't be on track to steer emerging economies off fossil fuels, and that makes 1.5 C much harder."
Turner said there also needs to be "greater clarity on the $100 billion commitment", as this figure does not include "all that is needed".
"The total financial flows required by developing countries are far higher, more like $500 billion, but most of the finance required is not a gift, but debt and equity investment that will get a return delivered by development banks and the private sector," Turner said. "What China does, for example, via the China Development Bank is more important than any 'developed country' promise."
A further point of international cooperation that remains unresolved is Article 6 of the Paris climate agreement, which covers carbon markets and other mechanisms to incentivize emissions reductions. Failure to reach agreement on Article 6 cast a shadow over negotiations at COP25 in Madrid.
Gambhir said: "This was a must-do in Madrid, yet didn't get done. There's always another chance at the next COP, but it will be disappointing and disheartening if Article 6 doesn't get fully agreed."
Some commentators have questioned if Article 6 needs a total rethink, as there is such a lack of consensus on the best way to achieve a workable system for carbon markets.
Turner said, "I am not convinced that Article 6 is nearly as important as some people suggest, and indeed we have to recognize dangers in the Article 6 approach.
"If the only way we get finance to flow from rich to poor is because rich countries take less action to reduce their own emissions, and instead buy credits from other countries, we will take the pressure off developed countries to drive the technologies which will lower the cost of decarbonization for everyone."
Zheng Zeguang, China's ambassador to the UK, feels that developed nations must respect the situation in different countries, especially those nations still undergoing industrialization and urbanization.
"Developed countries should take the lead in reducing emissions. They should not pin all the responsibilities onto China and developing nations," Zheng said.
Laurent Fabius, who chaired COP21 in Paris, said that putting a price on carbon "is probably the most efficient tool to use for our common goals".
"What strikes me is that on all these issues, carbon pricing is one of the keys, and may be the key," Fabius said during a recent virtual meeting of the Task Force on Carbon Pricing in Europe and the International Finance Forum.
"But it is true to say that carbon pricing will not be discussed as such in Glasgow, mainly because there is no international agreement on this very important question," he added.
Several nations and regions, including China and the European Union, have moved ahead with their own carbon trading mechanisms.
Vitor Gaspar, director of the International Monetary Fund's Fiscal Affairs Department, said that even if a comprehensive international agreement was untenable, a carbon pricing mechanism involving the six largest emitters "would be enough to get us on track".
A carbon market taking into account the signatories of the China-proposed Belt and Road Initiative, or BRI, has been suggested by Zhang Jianyu, executive director of the BRI Green Development Institute.
"Belt and Road countries account for over 60 percent of global carbon emissions. Faced with the prominent common challenge of climate change, a BRI carbon market could be introduced to reduce the overall emissions of BRI countries," Zhang said.
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